Seats to watch for the federal election
https://lemmy.world/post/28769956
lemmy.worldSeats to watch for the federal election - Lemmy.WorldHere’s a random guy’s overview of what to pay attention to for the upcoming
federal election, looking at the WA seats for the House Of Representatives. I’d
love to hear everyone’s thoughts and insights about these seats. — KEY SEATS —
BULLWINKEL: A new seat introduced for this election, covering the extreme
eastern suburbs (think High Wycombe) and the communities in the hills out to
Northam and York. Based on the results from polling centres within this boundary
in the previous election, ABC predicts it’s currently “held” by Labor with a
margin of 3.3% (largely supported by a strong Labor vote in the suburbs east of
Midland). Recent YouGov polling basically shows it as a coin toss between Labor
and Liberal. A recurring theme in some of these seats will be the success of the
Keep The Sheep campaign, and to what extent it galvanises more rural areas to
vote against Labor. For example, a drop in the Labor vote in Northam (which had
~52% 2CP in favour of Labor in 2022) could see the seat ‘swing’ to the Liberals.
The former state opposition leader Mia Davies is also running in this seat for
the Nationals as a relatively high-profile candidate, and I imagine most of her
votes will preference Liberals also. For these reasons I think the Liberals have
the slight edge in Bullwinkel, but it’s still anyone’s game. CANNING: This seat
incorporates Mandurah and the surrounding region. This includes some rural-ish
areas, so again the Keep The Sheep campaign may have some influence (I’m really
not sure if it will prove to be effective for them, or a complete flop!).
Liberals won with a 3.6% margin in 2022, but this year’s redistribution (now
cutting ever so slightly into Labor’s Rockingham stronghold) has narrowed the
predicted margin to a mere 1.2%. As a ballpark, ThePollBludger is currently
showing a statewide 2.2% swing towards Labor since 2022 within WA - obviously
different areas will vote differently, but this seat is definitely within
Labor’s reach now. However, YouGov polling is still showing Liberals maintaining
their slight lead, so I’d only expect this seat to flip to Labor if we see a big
Labor win on Saturday. CURTIN: This seat basically covers the Golden Triangle,
and is historically one of the safest Liberal seats - but is no more, being
currently held by independent Kate Chaney with a slim margin of 1.3%. Liberals
have thrown a lot of funding into trying to get this seat back, and it feels
like Chaney has been campaigning a bit less actively than in 2022. There’s a
risk Chaney has alienated some of her voterbase by backflipping on live export
(she was initially in support of the ban, but ended up voting against the ban).
However, despite ultimately voting against the ban, the Keep The Sheep campaign
still seems to be campaigning against her, which seems like the worst outcome
for Chaney. But there’s still hope for her - incumbent independents generally
tend to be more resistant to swings than the major parties, and both YouGov and
RedBridge polling predict Chaney to hold her slim margin. MOORE: This seat
includes Joondalup and the nearby coastal suburbs from Trigg to Currambine.
Despite being fairly safely held onto by the Liberal party since 1990, the 2022
election saw them only barely hold onto this seat, with a margin of just 0.9%.
Again, if ThePollBludger’s 2.2% state swing towards Labor holds up, Moore could
be theirs for the taking. It gets even more complicated for the Liberals - the
previously sitting Liberal MP Ian Goodenough lost preselection, but is still
running for the seat (now as an independent), which will pull a chunk of the
primary votes away from the Liberal party. I’d expect most of Goodenough’s
preferences to flow to the Liberal party anyway, but in such a marginal seat it
could have a real impact on the outcome! However, current YouGov polling still
shows Libs holding onto the majority - this one will go down to the wire.
TANGNEY: This seat covers the area to the south of the Swan and Canning Rivers,
from Bicton to Canning Vale. Similar to Moore, it’s been held comfortably by the
Liberals for most of the past 40 years, but a huge 13.9% swing in 2022 saw Labor
claim this seat with a narrow margin of 2.8%. Both parties are throwing
everything they have at this seat - the streets are absolutely littered with
corflutes. Labor are probably the favourites here; statewide polling would
suggest that a 2.8% swing away from Labor is unlikely, and both YouGov and
RedBridge polling both predict Labor to hold on. — LESS INTERESTING SEATS — -
Brand: Labor stronghold. - Burt: Labor stronghold. - Cowan: Safe for Labor. -
Durack: Fairly safe for Liberal, will be a good barometer for the Keep The Sheep
campaign. - Forrest: Liberal probably the favourites, but could end up being one
to watch. Liberals currently hold by 4.2%, but their sitting MP is retiring and
they now face opposition from a new independent Sue Chapman, who has a chance to
make a real splash. - Fremantle: Labor stronghold. Worth watching the Greens
performance here; this is definitely a seat they have their eye on in the future
and they’re a smokey to make the 2CP count. They’re still a good while off
genuinely contesting for the seat though. - Hasluck: Safe for Labor, especially
after significant redistribution of the boundaries. - O’Connor: Safe for
Liberal, Nationals might make the 2CP. - Pearce: Fairly safe for Labor, who
received a huge 14% swing in 2022 following a big resdistribution of boundaries.
- Perth: Labor stronghold. Greens best chance of making the 2CP should the
Liberal vote collapse further. - Swan: Safe for Labor. I think the big stories
to look out for will be if the Keep The Sheep campaign hurts Labor much, if we
see Labor grow or shrink their margins, if the Liberals can recover any of their
‘strongholds’, and if the teals are still in fashion. Curious to hear anyone
else’s thoughts or insights!
![A hand-drawn picture set in a wooded area on a wooden post. The drawing features a whimsical character with large eyes, a wide smile, and exaggerated spiky hair. The figure wears a patterned garment and appears to be waving or holding something in its hand. Handwritten text beside the character includes a date, \"11.11.2023,\" and a name, \"Ronny White.\" Additional text at the bottom reads \"the lost giant of Mandurah.\" The sign is surrounded by leaves and twigs on the ground.](https://files.mastodon.online/media_attachments/files/114/374/822/595/677/998/original/a7febeac870dd7e7.jpg "A hand-drawn picture set in a wooded area on a wooden post. The drawing features a whimsical character with large eyes, a wide smile, and exaggerated spiky hair. The figure wears a patterned garment and appears to be waving or holding something in its hand. Handwritten text beside the character includes a date, \\"11.11.2023,\\" and a name, \\"Ronny White.\\" Additional text at the bottom reads \\"the lost giant of Mandurah.\\" The sign is surrounded by leaves and twigs on the ground.")
