Derò 🇨🇦<p>Smashing good time</p><p>'Vom Winde verweht' <a href="https://mastodon.sdf.org/tags/FotoVorschlag" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FotoVorschlag</span></a><br><a href="https://mastodon.sdf.org/tags/bcstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bcstorm</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.sdf.org/tags/SalishSea" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SalishSea</span></a> <a href="https://mastodon.sdf.org/tags/photography" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>photography</span></a></p>
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#BCstorm
8 posts · 8 participants · 1 post today
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250411</p><p>A mix of sun and clouds through the weekend though some light showers may be observed today and tonight (mainly in North Shore communities). Highs climbing from near 11 today to near 15 Monday.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>New article: La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025
<a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/l...</a>
<a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23weather" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#weather</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23lanina" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#lanina</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23BCstorm" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#BCstorm</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23WAwx" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#WAwx</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23ORwx" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ORwx</a><br><br><a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutra...</a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>New article: La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025</p><p><a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-ni</span><span class="invisible">na-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/lanina" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lanina</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a></p>
Ingalls Weather<p><strong>La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025</strong></p><p>The latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center declared that La Niña has ended in the Pacific Ocean. We noted in some recent episodes of the <a href="https://ingallswx.com/comedeorology/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Comedeorological Report</a> that this was coming as sea surface temperatures along the equator had warmed.</p><p>La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is driven by sea surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The warm phase is El Niño while being near average is commonly called ENSO-Neutral.</p><blockquote><p><em>Ingalls Weather thanks the support it gets from donors. Please consider making a small donation </em><a href="https://ingallswx.com/donate/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">at this link</a><em> to help me pay for the website and access to premium weather data.</em></p></blockquote><p>Last winter’s La Niña was fairly weak despite early forecasts calling for a strong event. Development was delayed, with one possible factor behind this being very warm ocean temperatures throughout the planet. During the fall months, updated forecasts improved significantly.</p><p>La Niña’s death during spring of 2025 has been well-modeled for several months. Data shows that we are likely to remain in ENSO-Neutral conditions through the summer months with neutrality also favored this fall. A bias toward neutral conditions remains in the modeling through winter 2025-26 but confidence decreases the further into the future we look.</p> <p>Type your email…</p><p>Subscribe</p> <p>Looking toward the summer, some years with similar ENSO conditions are 2018, 2006, and 2001. Where this year goes will depend on more factors than just ENSO but this can give us some foresight in what to expect. These three years appear appropriate as they all brought ENSO-Neutral summers after a weak La Niña.</p><p>Last month I published <a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/03/11/looking-ahead-to-summer-2025-in-north-america/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">an article</a> that drew heavily on 2022 as an analog year for this summer. In general my view remains similar to last month’s article. I think out of the four years we’re considering, 2001 is the worst match for the Pacific Northwest as sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska were well below average during the spring instead of being above average as they are now.</p><p>It is worth noting that Summer 2001 also stands out against the other three years we’re considering in that Pacific Northwest temperatures were generally below average with well above average precipitation in and west of the Cascades. as well as in the B.C. Rockies.</p>Temperature anomalies for Summer 2022 in °C. (ECMWF/Univ of Maine)<p>The rest (2006, 2018, 2022) were relatively hot and dry summers in the Northwest and British Columbia. One exception here is that thunderstorm activity in Central Oregon and the Columbia Basin was enhanced during 2022.</p><p>A warm and dry summer following this moist spring we are having brings significant wildfire risk. Snowpack in Washington and British Columbia has improved over the last few weeks but we haven’t completely made up the deficit.</p><p>Moist weather in the spring and early summer allows for rampant growth in the understory of forests and of the grasses in arid regions. As this brush dries, it becomes fuel for wildfires. Fire season starts getting under way in May or June in the inland deserts and not long after in the mountains and forests.</p><p>A quick drying and warming can exasperate conditions by turning brush into fuel early in the season while also accelerating snowmelt. In the United States, nearly 90% of wildfires are caused by human activity. Dry fuels increase the risk of fire starts as well as the risk of them spreading rapidly.</p><p>The further north one gets in British Columbia the lower the population density, though human-started fires are possible anywhere. Dry thunderstorms become a significant threat during the second half of the summer in the B.C. Interior.</p><p>Aside from the fire risk, water supply is looking limited for this summer. Washington recently issued a drought emergency for most of the state. Kennewick Irrigation District is planning to request users to follow a voluntary watering schedule. Water supply for the Yakima Valley has improved in the last few weeks but remains below what was seen last year.</p><p>ENSO-Neutral years tend to bring the more activity during the Pacific Northwest fall storm season. If these conditions can be held onto into fall as models indicate, we could be in for multiple strong regional storms like the region experienced during Fall 2024. There is not a strong enough signal to discuss how this winter may look.</p><p><em>The featured image is sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific on April 9, 2025. (NOAA)</em></p><p><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/bcstorm/" target="_blank">#BCstorm</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/lanina/" target="_blank">#lanina</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/orwx/" target="_blank">#orwx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/wawx/" target="_blank">#wawx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/weather/" target="_blank">#Weather</a></p>
Alberniweather ☔️ ☀️ ❄️ 🌬️<p>Latest ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) forecast is out. The verdict is that the minor La Niña that existed the past few months is now gone. We are in “Neutral" conditions for the forseeable future, likely all the way to Fall and maybe next Winter.</p><p>Better chance of another La Niña next winter than El Niño, but the best chance is for Neutral conditions.</p><p><a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana</span><span class="invisible">lysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml</span></a></p><p><a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/LaNi%C3%B1a" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>LaNiña</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/ElNi%C3%B1o" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ElNiño</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/ENSO" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ENSO</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/PortAlberni" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PortAlberni</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/BC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BC</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/bcstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bcstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250408</p><p>Rain showers today with a high around 12. We may see some showers tomorrow, especially along the North Shore. Rain returns Thursday. A mix of sun and clouds Friday into the weekend.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250407</p><p>Rain showers and isolated t-storms today. Rain showers tomorrow but Wednesday may be dry with some clearing in drier parts of the metro. Rain again Thursday.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250404</p><p>Mostly sunny today and increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon. Rain begins Sunday with a chance of showers into the beginning of next week.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250403</p><p>Mostly sunny. High 13 today raising to 17 Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday afternoon with rain showers beginning Sunday. Start of next week looks moist.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250402</p><p>Similar weather to yesterday with a few rain showers but modest clearing in the afternoon. Mostly sunny tomorrow through Saturday with highs around 17. Rain showers resume Sunday and last into next week.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250401</p><p>Some showers but increasing sunshine in the afternoon both today and tomorrow. Mostly sunny Thursday through Saturday. A good chance of rain returns Sunday.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Alberniweather ☔️ ☀️ ❄️ 🌬️<p>Just after the sun went behind Arbutus ridge, but before sunset... a rainbow in the sky!<br><a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/PortAlberni" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PortAlberni</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/BCStorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCStorm</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/cloud" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>cloud</span></a> <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/rainbow" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>rainbow</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/Vancouver" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Vancouver</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a><br>20250331</p><p>Cool showers through Wednesday with the highest chance of showers in North Shore communities. Afternoon clearing possible in Surrey and Langley. Widespread sunshine Thursday and Friday with upper level ridging favoured.</p><p>It looks like that sunshine continues into the weekend. Currently favouring warming toward 20° but low confidence in that at this point.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>One of the construction workers on the tower going up right by me lost her hard hat to the wind. I watched it blow off. Hope nobody on the sidewalk was hit by it, she’s on the 17th floor. <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23YVR" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#YVR</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23BCstorm" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#BCstorm</a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>One of the construction workers on the tower going up right by me lost her hard hat to the wind. I watched it blow off. Hope nobody on the sidewalk was hit by it, she’s on the 17th floor. <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/YVR" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>YVR</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>In some of the <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> group chats I'm in we are continuing to discuss what went wrong with the severe weather forecast for the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday.</p><p>General consensus is that it was related to the capping inversion in the Willamette Valley, but dispute continues on the specifics.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
Robot Diver<p>I only learned about thunderstorm asthma yesterday, but holy crap is it ever a thing. Apparently large storm fronts have the ability to blast apart pollen particulate into much smaller particles which in turn means they end up deeper in your lungs. The number of emergency room visits rises exponentially during thunderstorms, particularly in spring. My sinuses are also effectively destroyed today. </p><p><a href="https://starlite.rodeo/tags/asthma" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>asthma</span></a> <a href="https://starlite.rodeo/tags/whyDoIFeelLikeCrap" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>whyDoIFeelLikeCrap</span></a> <a href="https://starlite.rodeo/tags/BCStorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCStorm</span></a> <a href="https://starlite.rodeo/tags/ThunderstormAsthma" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ThunderstormAsthma</span></a></p>
Alberniweather ☔️ ☀️ ❄️ 🌬️<p>Oh now that is a satellite picture to get excited about! <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/bcstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bcstorm</span></a></p>
Alberniweather ☔️ ☀️ ❄️ 🌬️<p>Don’t know that I have ever seen anything that intense on the Island. <a href="https://socialbc.ca/tags/bcstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>bcstorm</span></a></p>
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